Seeing Like a Market

SLAM studies how economically meaningful states become market objects. The work begins with specification and follows the state through price formation, execution, margining and legal recognition.

An initial working paper was presented at the inaugural Kalshi Research Conference at NYU Stern in March 2026. The programme is being developed by researchers who have previously worked at BlackRock, with additional academic engagement from the London School of Economics.

Seeing Like a Market

SLAM, Seeing Like a Market, studies how economically meaningful states become market objects: how they are defined, priced, replicated or originated, executed, margined and made usable by institutions.

This definition is broader than event-market empirics. Event contracts provide the first empirical setting. Statebook supplies the market-structure theory. Keystone supplies the account of legal constitution. Compute and other frontier underliers extend the comparative programme when credible evidence exists.

State

The state comes before the instrument.

Comparison starts with a reference, maturity, observation rule, settlement source, comparator and payoff convention. Contracts can name the same event while settling differently, which makes their labels a poor unit of analysis.

Access

A quotation does not establish institutional access.

A public contract may not be executable at the required size or eligible for a governed portfolio. Margin rules, operational controls and legal recognition create separate gates.

Market route

Matched exposure can travel by more than one route.

A terminal exposure may be traded directly, assembled from options or written by a dealer. That choice changes execution cost, counterparty structure, collateral and the residual left after the trade. Comparisons only hold when the underlying state and trading assumptions are aligned.

Public price

State prices may be extracted from another market or quoted directly.

Ordered states may be extracted from a maintained option surface. Categorical states may instead require direct quotation against a settlement rule, with participation determining whether the resulting price persists.

Institutional claim

The trade has to survive as a claim.

Execution does not finish the work. The payment rule, default treatment and close-out recognition must carry the position into a form the institution can legally hold.

Papers and the material record behind them.

Each entry groups the manuscript with its tools, methods, datasets, evidence and related artifacts. Further entries can be added without changing the structure.

Abstract excerpt

A statebook changes the organising unit from contract label to legally operative terminal payoff. For a registered state and requested payoff, it returns a direct fill, an exact synthetic route, a bounded route with the residual exposed, or no firm route.

Full title The Statebook: Market Structure Organized by Terminal Payoff

Tools and methods

  • Executable payoff query

    Specified in the manuscript

  • Finite call-spread bounds

    Developed in the manuscript

Datasets and evidence

  • Listed-market application materials

    No standalone dataset

Related artifacts

  • HPCCC interactive application

    Synthetic sibling publication; not empirical evidence

Abstract excerpt

A discrete state exposure can be assembled from contingent claims or traded directly. This paper compares the routes when claim, side, payout notional, time and execution mode are aligned, then identifies the break-even access cost from public prices.

Full title Event Contracts and the Cost of Matched State Exposure

Tools and methods

  • Vega Wedge analysis pipeline

    Internal codebase

  • Matched-state comparison protocol

    Documented in the manuscript

Datasets and evidence

  • June 2026 matched-state snapshot

    Frozen snapshot evidence

  • Research ledger and empirical manifest

    Internal provenance record

Abstract excerpt

Two routes produce state prices: relational extraction from a maintained option surface and direct quotation against a settlement rule. Geometry gates them. Ordered states admit extraction; categorical states admit direct quotation.

Full title The Observability Wedge: How New Risks Acquire Public Prices

Tools and methods

  • Comparator search and classification protocol

    Prospective protocol and read-only audit

Datasets and evidence

  • Standing-venue snapshot, 18 June 2026

    Frozen evidence object

  • Paper III evidence lock

    Controlling empirical memo

  • Research and source ledger

    Internal provenance record

Abstract excerpt

An exposure becomes an institutional financial claim only when law identifies the obligor, fixes the payment rule and determines what happens on default. The paper calls that work legal claim formation.

Full title From Exposure to Claim: ISDA and the Legal Formation of Financial Markets

Tools and methods

  • Legal claim-formation framework

    Developed in the manuscript

  • Principle of Fair Conduct

    Developed in the manuscript

Datasets and evidence

  • Doctrinal and historical source corpus

    No standalone dataset

Related artifacts

  • Compute rental swap

    Synthetic worked transaction

  • Quarterly-production shortfall swap

    Synthetic worked transaction